Heads Up: Sweeping Proposed Changes to the 2030 Decennial Census

UPDATE, September 30 — Take Action! Protect a Fair, Accurate, and Complete 2030 Census

What happened:
The draft rule PANO flagged in August is now official. On September 10, the U.S. Census Bureau published a proposed rule that would make significant changes to how the 2030 Decennial Census counts people and collects demographic data. Comments are due October 13, 2026.

What the proposed rule would do:

• Redefine who counts as a resident. The rule would write a new definition of “usual residence” into federal regulation that counts only U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents. Other lawfully present people — including international students and H-1B visa holders — would be left out of the count used for apportionment, along with undocumented residents.
• Rely on government records to decide who is counted. The Census Bureau would use tax records, Homeland Security records, and other administrative files to verify residence and status.
• Eliminate demographic questions. No questions on race, ethnicity, or sexual orientation could appear on the short-form census or any questionnaire used to count the population — ending race and ethnicity data collection that dates to the first census in 1790.
• Lock the changes in. Residence rules have historically been set through a multi-year public process before each census. Codifying them in regulation, on a 33-day comment period, would make them far harder to change for future counts.

Why it matters:
The U.S. Constitution requires our nation to undertake a census every 10 years to count all people living in the United States. This information plays a critical role in determining the number of seats each state has in the U.S. House of Representatives, and it is used to distribute trillions of dollars in federal funding to communities. The proposed changes would undermine the census’s ability to provide a fair, accurate, and complete count of people living in the U.S., and would leave out critical demographic information that Pennsylvania nonprofits, governments, and businesses use to understand and address changing community needs — for a full decade.

Get involved:

• Submit a public comment. Use NCN’s comment guide, which includes talking points, a comment template, and instructions for submitting comments. Comments are due October 13, 2026. Comments that describe how your organization uses census data — for grant applications, needs assessments, or service planning — carry the most weight.
• Sign NCN’s national letter opposing the proposed changes.
• Share these resources with your networks so nonprofits remain aware of the federal regulations affecting their communities.

Where things stand: The comment period closes October 13. The Census Bureau must review comments before issuing a final rule, and legal challenges are widely expected. PANO will share updates as the rule moves forward.

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What happened:
A leaked draft rule shows the Commerce Department is considering major changes to how the 2030 Census counts the population and what it asks — changes that would affect congressional apportionment, redistricting, and the data nonprofits and governments rely on to target services and funding. The draft has not been published in the Federal Register and is marked pre-decisional, but it signals the direction the administration may take.

What the draft rule would do:

• Exclude broad categories of noncitizens from the population count used to allocate congressional seats. The draft leaves key terms undefined, and the exclusion could sweep in not just undocumented immigrants but international students, H-1B visa holders, and other lawfully present noncitizens. This is a different legal strategy than the citizenship question the Supreme Court blocked during the first Trump administration — rather than asking who is a citizen, the rule would redefine who counts as a “resident.”
• Stop collecting race and ethnicity data altogether, ending a practice the census has followed in some form since the first count in 1790. That data is used to track how the country’s population is changing, monitor health outcomes and disease prevention, enforce anti-discrimination laws, and allocate federal funding.

Why it matters for Pennsylvania nonprofits:
Census data underpins the formulas that direct federal dollars to housing, health, education, and human services programs nonprofits rely on and deliver, and it shapes congressional and state legislative district lines. Nonprofits doing outreach in immigrant communities, communities of color, or historically undercounted communities should understand that both changes — who gets counted and what gets asked — could affect the accuracy of a count their community depends on for a full decade of funding and representation.

Where things stand:
No proposed rule has been formally published, and no comment period has opened. NCN is closely monitoring this issue and coordinating with other national organizations, and will provide resources to help nonprofits engage once a public comment period launches. Awareness now, ahead of a comment period, is valuable in itself so please share this with your boards and your networks.

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Image by Ralf Ruppert from Pixabay.